Abstract:
With ageing populations, understanding life course factors that raise the risk of depression in old age may help anticipate needs and reduce healthcare costs in the long run. We estimate the risk of depression in old age by combining adult life course trajectories and childhood conditions in supervised machine learning algorithms. Using data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), we implement and compare the performance of six alternative machine learning algorithms. We analyse the performance of the algorithms using different life-course data configurations. While we obtain similar predictive abilities between algorithms, we achieve the highest predictive performance when employing semi-structured representations of life courses using sequence data. We use the Shapley Additive Explanations method to extract the most decisive predictive patterns. Age, health, childhood conditions, and low education predict most depression risk later in life, but we identify new predictive patterns in indicators of life course instability and low utilization of dental care services.

Abstract:
Wealth is a buffer against economic shocks and the intergenerational transmission of disadvantage. We investigate the wealth of single-parent households in six high-income countries that span a variety of institutional contexts and welfare regimes. Using household survey data, we show that single-parent households in all these countries are disadvantaged in the wealth they hold, compared to dual-parent households—more so in Great Britain, France, Germany, and the United States; and less so in Italy and, especially, Spain. We tease out major differences in types of wealth holdings in single- and dual-parent households. We find that the single-parent wealth deficit is not explained by differences in age or number of children but that it is influenced by education, income, homeownership, and receipt of intergenerational transfers. We discuss the policy implications of our findings, both in terms of how single parents are treated in social protection and taxation systems and, more broadly, in the supports they require if they are to overcome barriers to accumulating wealth.

Abstract:
We study attitudes towards the introduction of hypothetical new taxes to finance the cost of the COVID-19 pandemic. We rely on survey data collected in Luxembourg in 2020. The survey asks for the agreement of respondents over: a one-time net wealth tax, an inheritance tax, a temporary solidarity income tax, and a temporary increase in VAT. All questions include different and randomly assigned tax attributes (tax rates and exemption amounts). We find a clear divide with relatively high support for new wealth and inheritance taxes on the one hand and a low support for increases in VAT and income taxes on the other hand. While 58% of respondents agree or strongly agree with a one-time tax levied on net worth, only 24% are in favor of a small increase in VAT. Support for any tax is however negatively associated with the size of the tax as measured by the predicted revenues. Our results indicate that a one-time wealth tax could raise substantial revenues and still garner public support.

Abstract:
The distribution of income in Russia changed significantly over the past 25 years. This paper examines the factors that have been driving the fall in inequality and poverty over two recent decades in the Russian Federation. Changes in earnings from public and private sectors and pensions have been the main sources of changes in the income distribution between 1994 and 2015. Falling inequality and poverty were the result of a decrease in the dispersion of private sector earnings and an increase in the levels of pensions and public sector earnings. Neither the evolution of socio-demographic characteristics nor the level or structure of employment alone had big impacts.

Abstract:
Wealth surveys that collect information on intergenerational transfers provide new scope for comparative study of those transfers and their relationship with wealth across rich countries. However, this is problematic in the case of Great Britain, due to specific features of the Wealth and Assets Survey (WAS), the central source of survey-based household wealth data, in particular the extent of missing information in its first wave. This has severely constrained efforts to investigate patterns of wealth transfer in Great Britain in comparative perspective. In this paper, we set out these issues and present ways of dealing with them. On this basis, we then examine the main similarities and differences in patterns of intergenerational transmission of wealth between Great Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United States. Our findings reveal common features across these countries as well as some important respects in which Great Britain was distinctive, though less of an outlier than the US. About 35 per cent of British households reported receiving an intergenerational wealth transfer at some point, similar to most of the comparator countries but much higher than the US. We conclude by setting out how WAS can be enhanced to address these issues at source, proposals with which the Office for National Statistics is seriously engaged.

Abstract:
We develop a decomposition of changes in household income distributions by factor components to quantify the contribution of changes over time in the association between sources of income and changes in their (marginal) distributions. The two components are broken down to isolate the contribution of specific income sources. An application to the change in the distribution of household incomes in Luxembourg between 2004 and 2013 reveals contrasted results: increased association between spouse earnings, public transfers and taxes depressed the income share of poor households while changes in marginal distributions increased incomes in the upper half of the distribution.

Abstract:
This paper presents a framework for studying international differences in the distribution of household income. Integrating micro-econometric and micro-simulation approaches in a decomposition analysis, it quantifies the role of tax-benefit systems, employment and occupational structures, labour and financial market returns, and demographic composition in accounting for differences in income inequality across countries. Building upon EUROMOD (the European tax-benefit calculator) and its harmonised datasets, the model is portable and can be implemented for cross-country comparisons between any participating country. An application to the UK and Ireland—two countries that have much in common while displaying different levels of inequality—shows that differences in tax-benefit rules between the two countries account for over one third of the observed difference in disposable household income inequality. Demographic differences play negligible roles. The Irish tax-benefit system is more redistributive than UK’s due to a higher tax progressivity and higher average transfer rates. These are largely attributable to policy parameter differences, but also to differences in pre-tax, pre-transfer income distributions.

Abstract:
The role of intergenerational transfers of wealth via inheritance and gifts inter vivos in the accumulation of household wealth and the generation of wealth inequality has been hotly debated. This paper uses data from household wealth surveys for six rich countries – Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the US – to assess the contribution of intergenerational wealth transfers to wealth inequality using decomposition methods for the Gini coefficient. The results show that transfer wealth is consistently a good deal more unequally distributed than non-transfer wealth and total wealth. Transfer wealth accounts for only about one-tenth of overall wealth inequality for the US compared to one-third for Germany and Italy. This mirrors the importance of transfer wealth in total wealth in each country, with differences in inequality in transfer wealth and its correlation with total wealth having only a modest impact. We find that a marginal percentage increase in all transfers reduces total wealth inequality in Britain, Germany and the US, while it would increase total wealth inequality in France, Italy and Spain.

Abstract:
Many low-income households in rich countries have very little wealth, but the role of intergenerational wealth transmission in underpinning this deficit is not known. This article seeks to fill that gap by investigating patterns of past wealth transfer receipt for low-income versus other households in seven rich countries and assessing the contribution that these transfers, or their absence, make to current wealth levels. We find that households on low incomes are relatively disadvantaged in terms of intergenerational transfers received in the past, both in terms of the likelihood of having received any and the amounts received by those who do benefit from such transfers. The role that this disadvantage plays in the linkage between current low-income and low wealth is assessed and evidence presented that it is significant. Simulation of a universal wealth transfer scheme or ‘capital endowment’ on reaching adulthood for two countries shows that such a policy could lead to a marked decline in the proportion of low-income adults with negative or no wealth. This and alternative or complementary policy responses to these wealth deficits merit the most serious attention.

Abstract:
Women are disproportionately in low‐paid work compared to men so, in the absence of rationing effects on their employment, they should benefit the most from minimum wage policies. This study examines the change in the gender wage gap around the introduction of minimum wages in Ireland and the United Kingdom (U.K.). Using survey data for the two countries, we develop a decomposition of the change in the gender differences in wage distributions around the date of introduction of minimum wages. We separate out price effects attributed to minimum wages from employment composition effects. A significant reduction of the gender gap at low wages is observed after the introduction of the minimum wage in Ireland, while there is hardly any change in the U.K. Counterfactual simulations show that the difference between countries may be attributed to gender differences in non‐compliance with the minimum wage legislation in the U.K.

Abstract:
Relatively few studies have examined the physical health of children who experience parental separation. The few studies on this topic have largely focused on the United States and have used cross-sectional designs. Our study investigates the relationship between parental separation and children's body mass index (BMI) and overweight/obesity risk using the UK Millennium Cohort Study. Treating parental separation as a process, we analyze variations in children's physical health before and after the date of their parents' separation in order to capture potential anticipation, adaptation, delayed, or cumulative effects. We estimate fixed-effects models to account for the potential correlation between children's physical health and unobserved factors associated with parental separation, such as socioeconomic background and other time-invariant parental characteristics. We find no evidence of statistically significant anticipation effects in the build-up to parental separation or of statistically significant changes in children's physical health immediately after separation. However, our results show that in the longer term, the BMI of children whose parents separate significantly deviates from the BMI of children from intact families. Furthermore, this association is especially strong for separations that occur when children are under age 6.

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This paper draws upon influence function regression methods to determine where foreign workers stand in the distribution of private sector wages in Luxembourg, and assess whether and how much their wages contribute to wage inequality. This is quantified by measuring the effect that a marginal increase in the proportion of foreign workers—foreign residents or cross-border workers—would have on selected quantiles and measures of inequality. Analysis of the 2006 Structure of Earnings Survey reveals that foreign workers have generally lower wages than natives and therefore tend to haul the overall wage distribution downwards. Yet, their influence on wage inequality reveals small and negative. All impacts are further muted when accounting for human capital and, especially, job characteristics. Not observing any large positive inequality contribution on the Luxembourg labour market is a striking result given the sheer size of the foreign workforce and its polarization at both ends of the skill distribution.

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The paper exploits large-scale administrative data to analyse trends in male earnings inequality in Luxembourg during 20 years of rapid economic growth, industrial redevelopment and massive inflow of foreign workers. A detailed error components model is estimated to identify persistent and transitory components of (the trends of) log-earnings variance and to disentangle the contributions to it of native, immigrant and cross-border workers. The model is flexible and allows for a high degree of individual, age, time and cohort heterogeneity. We observe a surprising stability in overall earnings inequality as a result of more complex underlying changes, with marked increases in persistent inequality (except among natives), a growing contribution of foreigners and a decrease in earnings instability (primarily for natives).

Abstract:
Macroprudential policies, such as caps on loan-to-value (LTV) ratios, have become part of the policy paradigm in emerging markets and advanced countries alike. Given that housing is the most important asset in household portfolios, relaxing or tightening access to mortgages may affect the distribution of household wealth in the country. In a stylised model we show that the final level of wealth inequality depends on the size of the LTV ratio, housing prices, credit cost and the strength of a bequest motive, and therefore it is not possible to predict an unequivocal effect of LTV ratios on wealth inequality. These trade-offs are illustrated with estimations of `Gini Recentered Influence Function' regressions on household survey data from 12 Euro-zone countries that participated in the first wave of the Household Finance and Consumption Survey. The results show that, among the households with active mortgages, high LTV ratios at the time of acquisition are related to high contributions to wealth inequality today, while house price increases are negatively related to inequality contributions. A proxy for the strength of bequest motives tends to be negatively related with wealth inequality, but credit cost does not show a significant link to the distribution of wealth.

Abstract:
This paper examines the relative well-being of Portuguese immigrants in Luxembourg by looking at indicators of material deprivation. We document material deprivation differences between immigrants and nationals---the `deprivation gap'---and measure the extent to which income differentials (and other sociodemographic differences) explain this gap using a combination of non-parametric methods and a versatile graphical device. We find a large and significant deprivation gap against Portuguese immigrants, whatever the indicator considered. The extent to which the gap is merely a reflection of differences in income, however, depends on what deprivation items are taken into consideration. Income differences almost fully account for material deprivation differences when the latter is measured using the items included in the official EU social indicator of material deprivation. Inclusion of housing condition indicators mitigates this relationship and we then find compelling evidence that the deprivation gap is not entirely accounted for by income differentials.

Abstract:
We develop methods for describing distributions of income growth across individuals and for comparing changes in growth distributions over time. The methods include graphical devices (‘income growth profiles’) and dominance conditions, and also summary indices, together with associated methods of estimation and inference. Taking an explicitly longitudinal perspective, our approach illuminates clearly who are the gainers and the losers, and also provides distributionally-sensitive assessments—ones that allow the income growth for different individuals to be weighted differently. Our empirical application shows that the pattern of income growth in Britain over the period 1992–6 was less pro-poor than that for 1998–2002, and not significantly different from the pattern for 2001–5.

Abstract:
This paper provides a new examination of the gender pay gap for Germany based on a family of distribution-sensitive indicators. Wage distributions for men and women do not only differ by a fixed constant; differences are more complex. We show that focusing on the bottom of the wage distribution reveals a larger gender gap. Our distribution-sensitive analysis can also be used to study whether the statistical disadvantage of women in average pay might be ‘offset’ by lower inequality. Over a broad range of plausible preferences over inequality, we show however that ‘inequality-adjusted’ estimates of the gap can be up to three times higher than standard inequality-neutral measures in Eastern Germany and up to fifty percent higher in Western Germany. Using preference parameters elicited from a hypothetical risky investment question in our sample, inequality-adjusted gender gap measures turn out to be close to those upper bounds.

Abstract:
The paper develops a parametric variant of the Machado–Mata simulation methodology to examine quantile wage differences between groups of workers, with an application to the wage gap between native and foreign workers in Luxembourg. Relying on conditional-likelihood-based ‘parametric quantile regression’ in place of the standard linear quantile regression is parsimonious and cuts computing time drastically with no loss in the accuracy of marginal quantile simulations in our application. We find that the native worker advantage is a concave function of quantile: the advantage is small (possibly negative) for both low and high quantiles, but it is large for the middle half of the quantile range (between the 20th and 70th native wage percentiles).

Abstract:
We survey the issues involved in comparing wealth distributions and measuring wealth inequality with illustrations from the Eurosystem Household Finance and Consumption Survey.

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The current poverty rate and the persistent poverty rate are both included in the EU's portfolio of primary indicators of social inclusion. We show that there is a near-linear relationship between these two indicators across EU countries drawing on empirical analysis of EU-SILC and ECHP data. Using a prototypical model of poverty dynamics, we explain how the near-linear relationship arises and show how the model can be used to predict persistent poverty rates from current poverty information. In the light of the results, we discuss whether the EU's persistent poverty measure and the design of EU-SILC longitudinal data collection require modification.

Abstract:
This paper considers measures of wage differentials not solely determined by mean comparisons but summarizing differences across complete wage distributions. The approach builds on considerations of risk or inequality aversion and on standard expected utility concepts. In an application to the gender pay gap in Luxembourg the disadvantage of women persists according to the proposed measures: lower mean wages for women are not compensated by differences in higher moments of wage distributions (e.g., by less dispersion) at least for realistic assumptions about women preferences toward risk and inequality. The paper also illustrates an original empirical model for wage distributions in the presence of covariates and under endogenous labour market participation.

Abstract:
This paper exploits EU Statistics on Income and Living Conditions longitudinal data 2003–2007 to describe the intertemporal distribution of income in twenty-six European countries prior to the onset of the Great Recession. We document levels, inequality and progressivity in the distribution of year-on-year income gains and losses and examine the relationship of these with inequality and poverty indicators. New Member States have typically seen individual incomes grow faster than other EU countries. Income gains were disproportionately pro-poor in all countries. We therefore observe regression to the mean both among EU countries and among individuals within countries. However, short-run income mobility does not significantly reduce inequality of time-averaged incomes. Potential issues about cross-country comparability of the data and the short period under consideration call for caution in interpreting our results, however.

Abstract:
We examine the effect of income inequality on individualś self-rated health status in a pooled sample of 11 countries, using longitudinal data from the European Community Household Panel survey. Taking advantage of the longitudinal and cross-national nature of our data, and carefully modeling the self-reported health information, we avoid several of the pitfalls suffered by earlier studies on this topic. We calculate income inequality indices measured at two standard levels of geography (NUTS-0 and NUTS-1) and find consistent evidence that income inequality is negatively related to self-rated health status in the European Union for both men and women, particularly when measured at national level. However, despite its statistical significance, the magnitude of the impact of inequality on health is very small.

Abstract:
An `income mobility profile' is a graphical tool to portray income mobility and identify the association between individual movements and initial status which, despite its importance when assessing the social relevance of mobility, is often discounted by aggregate mobility indices.

Abstract:
We develop an integrated framework for studying income convergence that incorporates traditional measures of beta-convergence and sigma-convergence. These concepts are formally linked by a measure of re-ranking (or leapfrogging). Our proposed measure of beta-convergence allows for nonlinearities in the growth process and explicitly identifies the contribution of faster growth among low-income regions to reductions in overall inequality. To develop our framework we exploit the close links that exist between studies of income convergence and studies that examine the progressivity of the tax system. We illustrate our approach by examining both cross-country and regional income dynamics.

Abstract:
We provide an analytical framework within which changes in income inequality over time are related to the pattern of income growth across the income range and the reshuffling of individuals in the income pecking order. We use the framework first to explain how it was possible both for the poor to have fared badly relatively to the rich in the USA during the 1980s (when income inequality grew substantially), and also for income growth to have been pro-poor. Second, we contrast the US experience with that of Western Germany, where there was a much smaller rise in inequality. This is accounted for by income growth that was more pro-poor than in the USA.

Abstract:
This paper develops methods for decomposing changes in the income distribution using subgroup decompositions of the income density function. Overall changes are related to changes in subgroup shares and changes in subgroup densities, where the latter are broken down further using elementary transformations of individual incomes. These density decompositions are analogous to the widely-used decompositions of inequality indices by population subgroup, except that they summarize multiple features of the income distribution (using graphs), rather than focusing on a specific feature such as dispersion, and are not dependent on the choice of a specific summary index. Nonetheless, since inequality and poverty indices can be expressed as PDF functionals, our density-based methods can also be used to provide numerical decompositions of these. An application of the methods reveals the multi-faceted nature of UK income distribution trends during the 1980s.

Abstract:
The paper presents a decomposition of income mobility indices into two basic sources: Mobility induced by a change of the income distribution shape and mobility induced by a re-ordering of individuals in the income pecking order. The decomposition procedure based on counterfactual distributions results in a decomposition that is applicable to a broad class of mobility measures. Application to income `movement' indices with data for Belgium, Western Germany and the USA indicates that reranking has been the major force behind income mobility.

Abstract:
This paper documents the magnitude of income mobility in Germany and its distribution across different income positions, using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel. The suggested graphical approach makes it straightforward to identify the portions of the distribution that have the largest impact on aggregate `income movement' indices a la Fields and Ok, and hence offers a starting point to help account for income mobility levels. It appears that most of the contribution to mobility is made by the poorest 10% of the initial distribution. Average relative income changes are much lower and generally constant for the rest of the population.

Abstract:
Le caractère longitudinal du Panel Study on Belgian Households permet de suivre un échantillon d'individus au cours du temps et de voir si ce sont les mêmes personnes qui se trouvent en situation de pauvreté anné après année ou si au contraire il y a un renouvellement de la population pauvre. Il apparaît qu'il a un renouvellement important dans la pauvreté. Cependant, l'évaluation dépend fortement du niveau de la ligne de pauvreté choisie. Généralement, les groupes identifiés à risque en coupe transversale se révèlent aussi à risque si l'on se focalise sur la persistance dans la pauvreté. Il faut noter que la différenciation entre les groupes à risque se marque plus lorsque l'on élève la ligne de pauvreté. Sans surprise, l'accès au marché du travail se révèle être un déterminant important de la pauvreté et de la persistance dans celle-ci.

Abstract:
This note describes a Stata implementation of a space-filling location selection algorithm. It optimally selects a subset from an array of locations so that the spatial coverage of the array by the selected subset is optimized according to a geometric criterion. Such an algorithm is useful in site selection problems, but also in various non-parametric estimation procedures, e.g. to select (multivariate) knot locations in spline regression analysis.

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In this article, I describe estimation of the kernel-smoothed cumulative distribution function with the user-written package akdensity, with formulas and an example.

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